(A modified version of this article was published in Vijay Times, 20th November 2006)
1. Why is Hu Jintao coming to India?
Hu Jintao is visiting India November 20-22 on the invitation of President Kalam. His visit follows a series of high-level political visits between the two countries starting with former Prime Minister AB Vajpayee’s visit to Beijing in 2003 and Chinese premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to India in April 2005. During the latter visit, China and India agreed to raise their relationship to a strategic level. India observed 2006 as the ‘Year of China’. In a sense, Hu Jintao’s visit will signal the culmination of that celebration.
2. What is on the agenda?
There has been much talk about seeking a resolution of the border dispute between India and China during Hu’s visit. But this is unlikely to be the focus of the visit. Rather, improving trade ties will be the focus. The Chinese side is said to be seeking market economy status for China from India, as well as a Free Trade Agreement. India is likely to talk about what it sees as unwarranted Chinese interest in India’s sensitive infrastructure sectors in sensitive locations. There is also likely to be talks on understanding each other’s positions on global issues, especially multilateralism and multipolarity.
3. Is Hu’s visit as big an event as George Bush’s visit in March this year?
India-China relations have improved, mainly due to mutual political restraint and due to the focus in both countries on their respective economic growth. But India-US relations have improved due to shared strategic interests. Consequently, what is being attempted with China is to arrive at a modus Vivendi with a neighbour and a peer, whereas what’s being attempted with the US is a strategic partnership with the world’s lone Superpower. In line with these different levels of the India-China and India-US relationships, Hu’s visit cannot be placed on the same level as President Bush’s visit. Moreover, the Indian public look at China with a lot more suspicion than they do America. Therefore, there won’t be much popular fanfare either. That said, however, China is a rising world power and an important trade partner. The Indian side will leave no stone unturned in their efforts to please the guest.
4. What is the importance of being Hu? How does he matter in the Chinese leadership hierarchy?Hu is not only the President of China, but also the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and the Chairman of the Central Military Commission, which are the real sources of power over party and government in China. The Politburo of the Communist Party is the apex body for all affairs. Various ‘Small Leading Groups’ in the Politburo discuss policy on all subjects, but Hu is the final arbiter. Personally, Hu has risen through the ranks of the Communist Party rather spectacularly since 1988. In China, he is described as the ‘‘man who does not show his hand’’, meaning that he takes no position on issues, raises no controversies. It is said that this is the secret of his rise.
5. What is the border dispute with China?
In very simple terms, the border dispute with China is a set of rival claims over territory in three sectors along the India-Tibet-China border. In the eastern sector, China claims practically the entire state of Arunachal Pradesh – which it calls South Tibet -- as its territory. In the western sector, China is in control of Aksai Chin, but India claims it. These are the two main disputed regions. In the middle sector, China has made claims with regard to small areas bordering it in Uttaranchal and Himachal Pradesh. Also, despite an agreement in 2003 on the status of Sikkim, even the latest official Chinese maps show it as an independent state, not a part of India.
6. Why hasn’t a solution been possible until now?
The two countries held discussions between 1957 and 1959 but could not resolve the disputes. Eight rounds of Joint Secretary-level talks were conducted between 1981 and 1988, but to no avail. The dialogue was upgraded to the Foreign Secretaries level and some 15 rounds of discussions were held between 1988 and 2005; 15 Joint Working Groups were established and have been at work to resolve the disputes. Former Prime Minister AB Vajpayee and Hu’s predecessor Jiang Zemin named their Special Representatives and attempted a speedy solution at the highest political levels. Brajesh Mishra, the late JN Dixit and now MK Narayanan have all conducted talks as Special Representatives. No solution has been arrived at.
The India-China border dispute is a complex problem that involves a mix of a historic legacy left over from the colonial era, the problem of two historic civilisations coming to terms with their transformation into Westphalian nation-states with rigourously drawn boundaries, regional power rivalries accentuated by extra-regional superpower involvement, and even a legacy of personal animosities of Indian and Chinese leaders, complicated by war, alliance and rivalry between India, China and Pakistan.
7. What are the envisaged solutions?What has come out of all these talks is an agreement on the political principle that will govern the final settlement: it has to be ‘fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable’. China proposed a one-shot solution approach: China keeps Aksai Chin, India keeps Arunachal Pradesh; India proposed a detailed sector-by-sector approach. They are said to have agreed on a modality that integrates both approaches. It is to be seen how this works.
8. What are the chances of resolution during Hu’s visit?As noted earlier, Hu is likely to sidestep the border issue, whose resolution is nowhere in sight. There may, however, be a joint statement that reiterates the desire for a peaceful resolution as per the political principle and approach agreed upon.
9. What should we make of reports that China is building roads and rail into Indian territory?
China has not built any roads on Indian territory, but it is building roads and rail close to it and all around it. Under what’s called the Western Development Campaign, China has built some 22,000 kilometres of road in Tibet alone, and this is expected to be extended to 30,000 kilometres. Hu, who was Party Secretary (the equivalent of a chief minister of an Indian state) in Tibet and has witnessed the backwardness of much of China’s western region – including Tibet, Yunan, Xin Jiang, Kansu and several other provinces – is pushing this immense development effort. Apart from the roads, one achievement that is most heard of these days is the 1,142-km Qinghai-Tibet railway engineering marvel that connects mainland China with Lhasa. Gas pipelines, fibre optic cable and other infrastructure are also part of this development effort. Some of it comes close to Indian territory, some of it influences life on the Indian side, and some of it – such as the Tibet railway – causes much worry among strategic circles.
10. What should we make of reports that China is diverting the Brahmaputra river inwards to feed its own rivers, that it wants to manipulate the Sutlej to flood India?
The Brahmaputra diversion is still an idea being explored, not a project under way. China experts say these are not evil designs to harm India, but merely a part of China’s massive development efforts. The Pareechu lake incident in 2003 and the washing out of apple orchards in Himachal Pradesh are as yet unexplained events. China has signed an understanding with India to exchange hydrological data for Brahmaputra and other rivers. India does not yet have a treaty – like the Indus waters treaty with Pakistan or the Farakkha treaty with Bangladesh – with China, but some people have raised the possibility of negotiating one. What must worry India, however, is the fact that the Chinese approach to development and infrastructure building is different from that of India.
11. What are India’s other concerns about China?
India has several other concerns about China. India is worried about the fact that while Indian companies have invested nearly a billion dollars in China in the software, automotive and other commercial sectors, China’s investment in India amounts to less than a million dollars. But Chinese companies have shown interest only in sensitive infrastructure projects such as ports and shipping and telecommunications, which have given rise to doubts about China’s intentions. India is also concerned about how US-China relations might shape up and how it would affect us. But the biggest concern is about China-Pakistan relations. Hu will be flying to Islamabad from Delhi. China and Pakistan are expected to announce their own version of a nuclear deal. China will build six new nuclear reactors in Pakistan. In the early 1990s, China supplied fully-built missiles to Pakistan and is also believed to have given it tested nuclear bomb designs. Despite China’s international commitments on nuclear and missile non-proliferation, Chinese engineers continue to work in Pakistan’s Fatehgunj where its Shaheen missiles are built. China is also building the Gwadar port. There are similar strategic concerns about China’s relations with Myanmar too.
12. What does India want from Hu’s visit?
India’s wishlist for the Hu visit includes a further push by the two countries towards multilateralism – meaning greater support from China for an enhanced Indian role in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the East Asian Summit; a further push for multipolarity – meaning an enhanced agenda for the India-China-Russia partnership on non-security issues such as energy, transport, trade and investment; a further push to economic relations, especially in a way that promotes gains for the Indian manufacturing sector. A more immediate objective is to convince China to further moderate its relations, especially of the nuclear kind, with Pakistan.
What we can expect to see in practical terms, however, is a joint statement reiterating multilateralism and the UN Charter – focusing on the sanctity of sovereignty of nations; a commitment to expand economic ties, perhaps pushing targets of bilateral trade higher; mundane things like enhanced sports, cultural relations; and, interestingly, a plan for a joint counter-terrorism exercise.
13. China seems to be one of the few major countries that are not affected large-scale by Islamist terrorism. Is it true?
The fact that we don’t hear as often of terrorist attacks in China does not mean it has escaped from this scourge. In fact, China is facing as much of a terrorist menace as India. For comparison, there are about 18 terrorist groups in Jammu and Kashmir, there are 15 such groups in Xin Jiang province, home to the Muslim Uighyur population, which is fighting a separatist war against China. It is estimated that there are some 2,200 trained terrorists – or freedom fighters, from the Uighyur point of view or from the point of view of Islamists – in Xin Jiang. They get their training and arms from the same people that Pakistan-sponsored terrorists in Kashmir get them from – the Al Qaeda and the Pakistan ISI. China also accuses the Central Asian Republics of fomenting Uighyur separatism. It is said that large numbers of shoulder-fired Stinger missiles have made their way into Xin Jiang. It is also said that Chinese-supplied Red Arrow missiles – supplied to anti-Soviet Mujahideen in the 1980s – are boomeranging back into China.
(Srikanth Kondapalli is Associate Professor of Chinese Studies at JNU, New Delhi)
