(An abridged version of this story was first published in Vijay Times, 25 January 2007).
India is unlikely to conduct nuclear tests in the future, the prime minister’s Special Envoy on the India-US nuclear deal Shyam Saran said on Wednesday.
He was responding to questions after delivering the second annual Dr. Raja Ramanna Memorial Lecture at the National Institute of Advanced Studies in Bangalore.
Responding to a question about the stipulations on Indian nuclear testing in the nuclear deal legislation, Saran said: ‘‘India too would likely not take a decision to conduct a (nuclear) test again’’.
The legislation, called Hyde Act, ‘‘sets the legal parameters within which the US will negotiate the 123 agreement on nuclear cooperation with India’’.
Saran went on to say that India might think of conducting tests only under what he called ‘‘boundary conditions’’ -- if one of the other nuclear powers conducted such a test.
To another question on the consequences of a future nuclear test once the so-called ‘‘nuclear deal’’ becomes operational, Saran admitted that the sanctions that would follow from America and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) would impact ‘‘not only civilian nuclear power, but a whole range of economic activity. The impact will be across the economy’’.
During the course of the lecture, Saran also clarified that India would not attain the ‘‘Nuclear Weapons State’’ tag following the India-US deal. Under the July 18, 2005 Joint Statement, India would have to agree to an ‘‘India-specific’’ international safeguards agreement because while India has nuclear weapons, it is ‘‘not a Nuclear Weapons State under the Non-Proliferation Treaty’’.
Saran contended, however, that once the ‘‘nuclear deal’’ is through, India would be completely integrated with global nuclear flows. ‘‘The significance to economic growth should not be underestimated’’, he said, adding that a wide range of dual-use technologies that had been previously denied would become available.
Later, speaking to Vijay Times, Saran said that while adverse consequences would follow any future nuclear test, India would nevertheless not be found in violation of any international agreement because ‘‘we are not prepared to give a legal commitment on testing’’.
The next steps for India are to negotiate with America the ‘‘123 agreement’’ which will set out the terms of the nuclear trade between the two countries and to negotiate the safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Finally, the NSG will have to adjust its guidelines to allow its members to indulge in nuclear trade with India.
Saran's 'no more tests' declaration comes even as the other nuclear weapons powers, the US, the UK, Russia, China and France, are making strenuous efforts to build up their offensive nuclear arsenals as well as build missile defence shields. China and the US are also now engaged in weaponising outer space. Unlike India, these powers have tested their nuclear weapons hundreds of times and their testing programmes are complete for their existing weaponry. India's nuclear weapons capability, many Indian and Western experts say, remains at 'technology demonstrator' level. Its 1998 thermonuclear test was only a 'partial success' and a single such test is not enough to give confidence for deployment of these as weapons.
